# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours, and Polymarket currently prices the YES side at 58%, suggesting conditional token holders expect the video to exceed a specific threshold. The market settles based on YouTube's view counter at the 24-hour mark, with resolution contingent on the video being posted by 30 June 2026; if no upload occurs by then, the contract resolves to the lowest bracket. Traders holding YES tokens on Polygon are effectively betting that first-day viewership will clear the strike price, whilst those shorting the position via NO tokens anticipate underperformance relative to that benchmark.

MrBeast's historical upload patterns show considerable variance in day-one performance. His most viral content—including the "$1 million" and "squid game" series—regularly exceeded 50 million views in 24 hours, whilst lower-profile uploads sometimes stalled below 30 million. The creator's audience engagement has remained relatively stable despite increased upload frequency, though algorithmic promotion and thumbnail effectiveness introduce material uncertainty. Comparable creators like SET India and Dude Perfect show that first-day viewership correlates strongly with content category and release timing, with surprise drops or niche topics underperforming established franchises.

Key variables for traders include MrBeast's announcement schedule—any teaser or collaboration reveal typically inflates day-one numbers—and YouTube's algorithmic behaviour during the settlement window. Recent platform changes to recommendation systems have affected initial velocity for established creators. The 58% pricing reflects genuine uncertainty around whether the next upload represents flagship content or experimental material, with the settlement deadline providing a hard cutoff for resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.