Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will face each other in the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices a Haiti victory at 62% YES, meaning traders are valuing a Scottish win and draws combined at 38%. This pricing reflects conditional token mechanics on Polygon, where USDC collateral backs each outcome token—holders of YES tokens profit if Haiti wins outright, whilst NO token holders benefit from any non-Haiti result.

Historical context suggests this probability warrants scrutiny. Haiti has never qualified for a World Cup knockout stage; their sole prior appearance was 1974. Scotland, conversely, has qualified nine times and reached the group stage in five tournaments, most recently 2022. Head-to-head competitive history is absent, though Haiti's CONCACAF confederation rivals typically rank below Scotland's UEFA peers in official FIFA standings. The 62% YES reading appears to price Haiti as slight favourites despite structural disadvantages in squad depth, competitive experience, and infrastructure investment.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations through early 2026, particularly injury updates and domestic league form for key players. Scotland's preparation will depend partly on their qualifying campaign trajectory—finishing top seeds versus runners-up affects seeding and group composition. Haiti's pathway through CONCACAF qualifying remains fluid; their final squad selection and any late coaching changes could shift perceived match probability materially. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may also influence fatigue levels, though FIFA typically spaces group matches to minimise advantage.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.