US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Polymarket contract pricing this scenario at 74% YES reflects trader conviction that the United States will formally announce either an extension of its existing ceasefire with Iran or a new diplomatic framework codifying continued military restraint before the resolution deadline. This probability sits notably high given the absence of active direct military conflict between Washington and Tehran since April 2024, when Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel following an Israeli airstrike on Iranian consular premises in Damascus. The market is pricing in the likelihood that this de facto pause becomes formalised through official channels rather than remaining an implicit understanding.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparisons. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took months of negotiation and involved multiple nations; the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal demonstrated how quickly such arrangements can unravel. More recently, the Biden administration has pursued quiet diplomacy rather than headline-grabbing agreements with Iran, preferring back-channel communications through Oman and other intermediaries. This pattern suggests any announcement would likely come through carefully choreographed statements rather than surprise declarations.

Traders should monitor statements from the State Department and White House regarding Iran policy, particularly following any developments in Israeli-Iranian tensions or broader Middle Eastern escalations. The incoming Trump administration's stance on Iran engagement represents a critical variable; Trump's previous withdrawal from the JCPOA signals scepticism towards formalised Iran agreements. Congressional activity and any Iranian domestic political shifts could also trigger movement in either direction, though the current 74% pricing suggests markets view a formal announcement as more probable than not within the timeframe.

Methodology

We track US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.