Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature somewhere across a range of possible values, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will settle. The contract resolves against the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset, making this a straightforward instrumental reading rather than an interpretive call.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold of the summer monsoon season. Historical data shows daily maxima in early-to-mid June typically range between 28°C and 32°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2015 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 34°C in early June; conversely, cooler years with active monsoon systems have kept peaks closer to 27–28°C. Current market pricing at 0% across all brackets suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a low-volume contract awaiting initial price discovery.

The relevant catalyst is the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook, typically issued in May, which provides three-month guidance on temperature and rainfall patterns. Traders should monitor whether the 2026 outlook signals an El Niño or La Niña influence, as these patterns materially affect June temperatures across the region. The Observatory publishes daily data with a lag of one to two days, so final settlement will occur shortly after 12 June once the official extract is available.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.