Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 5 July 2026 at Tokyo Haneda Airport, measured in degrees Celsius, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the outcome falling into the implied “YES” range. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the zero probability reflects the crowd’s conviction that the day’s peak will not breach the specific threshold tied to the “YES” outcome.

Historically, July in Tokyo Haneda sees daily highs between 25°C and 33°C, with recent years showing extreme volatility; in 2025, Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Hyogo, while this year’s July has been nearly 3°C above normal with record-low rainfall, according to WION Climate Tracker[1]. The forecast for Haneda in July 2026 projects highs from 25°C to 33°C (76°F to 91°F), suggesting the peak on 5 July will likely stay within the lower range, reinforcing the current 0% pricing[2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for severe thunderstorm clusters and temperature spikes, as clusters of severe weather are expected to influence readings on 4–5 July[3]. Additionally, the Meteorological Department has warned that above-average temperatures will persist into August, particularly outside southern areas like Okinawa, which could elevate the risk of a higher peak if cloud cover fails to develop[1]. No official announcements are pending, but real-time Wunderground data will be the definitive settlement source, making on-chain monitoring of temperature feeds essential for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.