Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 83% |
| Game 1 Winner | 73% |
| Game 2 Winner | 71% |
| Game 3 Winner | 71% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 70% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Game 4 Winner | 63% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 43% |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 37% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 29% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 83% probability to lol: hanwha life esports vs g2 esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Hanwha Life Esports and G2 Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 4:00AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-S… on Kalshi UK
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