Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai Pudong airport temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, which means the market is assigning virtually no chance that the day’s highest reading lands in the YES range once settlement uses the Wunderground station record and the on-chain conditional token resolves in USDC on Polygon. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, traders are effectively betting against a meaningful afternoon warm-up at ZSPD, even though the event is still live and the final print depends on the airport station’s recorded maximum rather than a citywide average.

That zero bid needs to be read against June climatology rather than a single morning snapshot. Shanghai Pudong’s June daily highs typically rise through the month and average in the low 30s °C range, with WeatherSpark showing typical June highs around 77–83°F and rare peaks above 92°F; airport climate summaries also note that Shanghai summer highs often clear 30°C and can reach 35°C in sunny spells.[2][3][7] By comparison, BBC Weather is calling for thundery showers and a 28°C high at nearby Shanghai Hongqiao on Sunday, which is consistent with warmth but not an extreme heat setup.[1]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the airport’s short-term forecast, any late-morning cloud or shower development, and whether the inland heat ridge strengthens enough to push the peak after midday UTC, before Wunderground’s daily maximum is locked in.[1][4] Shanghai authorities have recently been dealing with severe heat across parts of south-east China, including an orange alert and a 40.9°C reading reported in the region, so any broader hot-air surge could matter if it reaches the coast.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.