Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits, has experienced significant disruption since Houthi attacks began in October 2023, with daily vessel transits declining from historical averages of 60–70 ships to sustained levels below 50. Polymarket currently prices the YES token at 25 cents, reflecting trader scepticism that transit volumes will recover to the 60-ship threshold by June 2026. The resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch data—a narrow, verifiable metric that excludes informal shipping records or alternative routing estimates, making this contract sensitive to how severely the underlying geopolitical friction persists.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The 1987–88 Tanker War saw Hormuz traffic disrupted for months but ultimately recovered within quarters once military escorts and de-escalation took hold. Conversely, the 2019–2020 period following the Soleimani assassination saw shipping patterns shift structurally rather than snap back, with some routes permanently rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Current conditions sit between these scenarios: attacks have become routine rather than episodic, yet major powers have avoided direct confrontation that would trigger full closure.

Traders should monitor three variables through mid-2026. First, any ceasefire agreement in Yemen or direct US–Iran negotiations could rapidly shift insurance premiums and routing decisions. Second, the completion of the Suez Canal expansion and evolving Red Sea security posture will determine whether alternative routes remain economically viable. Third, quarterly shipping reports from major carriers—particularly those filed with stock exchanges—often precede Portwatch revisions by weeks, offering leading indicators. Recent statements from the International Maritime Organization in January 2025 flagged persistent transit delays but no fundamental capacity constraints, suggesting recovery remains possible if political conditions shift.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.