Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and settled via Wunderground historical data. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, indicating the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or trader conviction to establish meaningful odds across the available brackets. This reflects the typical state of weather markets more than six months ahead of the settlement date, where conditional token pricing remains sparse until nearer the event window.

Shanghai's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. Data from the past decade shows 13 June temperatures have clustered around 30–31°C on most years, though extremes have reached 35°C in unusually hot seasons. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or simply have not yet committed capital to weather derivatives this far out, a common pattern in prediction markets where liquidity concentrates in the final weeks before settlement.

Traders monitoring this contract should track El Niño and La Niña patterns through winter 2025–26, as these significantly influence East Asian summer temperatures. China's meteorological authority typically releases seasonal outlooks in May, which often trigger repricing of long-dated weather contracts. Additionally, any major volcanic activity or unusual atmospheric circulation patterns reported between now and May 2026 could shift expectations for June heat. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 June, giving traders a narrow final window to adjust positions based on actual weather forecasts issued in the preceding days.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.