Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 5 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market contract. Historical data shows that July is the hottest month for the region, with average daily highs reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and frequently exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny periods[1][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, yet climatic norms indicate such lows are rare in mid-summer, as daily highs rarely drop below 75°F (23.9°C)[1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates and severe thunderstorm clusters, which are expected to impact temperature readings in the coming days[3]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Shanghai Pudong station, making the on-chain conditional tokens on the Polygon network dependent on this external oracle feed[3]. While no specific weather announcements have been issued yet, the gradual increase in shortwave solar energy during July, rising from 5.1 kWh to 5.6 kWh, suggests a high likelihood of warm conditions unless cloud cover from storm clusters intervenes[1]. USDC liquidity on Polymarket remains sensitive to these meteorological dependencies as the settlement window approaches 2026-07-05T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.