Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 28 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The Polymarket contract currently prices this event at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's distance and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather outcomes nearly two years forward. Traders on Polygon are holding conditional tokens denominated in USDC, with resolution contingent on a single daily maximum reading from a specific weather station rather than city-wide averages.

May in Seoul typically sees temperatures between 20°C and 28°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 30°C in late May. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 32°C—occur roughly once per decade in late May, whilst readings above 25°C are commonplace. The 0% pricing suggests the market has not yet differentiated between realistic temperature bands; comparable May days at Incheon Airport have produced highs ranging from 18°C during cooler years to 31°C during warmer patterns.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in spring 2026, which typically indicate whether the season will trend warmer or cooler than normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift probabilities materially. The specific measurement point—Incheon Airport rather than central Seoul—matters; coastal stations often record slightly lower maxima than inland areas due to maritime influence, a factor that should anchor expectations downward relative to city-centre temperature discussions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.