Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, implying the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being bet on. This near-zero valuation reflects a consensus that the day will not reach the threshold temperature, likely due to typical early-summer conditions in Seoul.

Historically, June in Seoul sees daytime highs averaging 26°C, with a range of 19–28°C and only about seven rainy days. The warmest day in June 2026 so far was 19 June, reaching 34°C, but that was an outlier amid generally mild, pre-monsoon weather. Early June often feels like extended spring, and while humidity rises toward the end of the month, extreme heat remains uncommon before July. These patterns suggest the market’s 0% pricing is grounded in reliable long-term averages rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter temperatures. The onset of Korea’s monsoon season, typically late June to mid-July, may bring increased rainfall and cooler conditions, further reducing the chance of high temperatures. Recent reports from Weather2Travel and AccuWeather confirm that July and August are significantly hotter, reinforcing that June remains a moderate month for Seoul heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.