Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 14 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either a technical issue with market initialisation or extremely low liquidity. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, creating a tight window for traders to monitor actual conditions and adjust positions before resolution.

Mid-June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 26–28°C as the region transitions into early summer before the monsoon season intensifies. Historical data from the past five years shows temperatures rarely exceed 30°C in early June, though heat waves are not uncommon in the broader region. The 0% probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet attracted sufficient trading activity to establish meaningful price discovery, making this contract sensitive to initial order flow once traders begin positioning.

Traders should monitor South Korean meteorological forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the week leading up to 14 June, as these will provide the most reliable guidance on whether anomalous heat is expected. Pacific typhoon activity tracking and any upper-level ridge development across East Asia could push temperatures significantly higher than the seasonal norm. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Wunderground's Incheon station data means traders should verify that station's operational status and historical accuracy before committing capital, particularly given the contract's current dormancy.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.