Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

The highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 13 June 2026 will fall within one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at near-zero probability. This reflects the market's early stage and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events nearly two years ahead. The settlement mechanism relies on historical temperature data from Wunderground's Incheon station, converted to Celsius, with USDC collateral locked on Polygon until the resolution window closes at midday UTC on the settlement date.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 26°C to 29°C during this period. The city experiences increasing humidity as the East Asian monsoon season approaches, though the onset varies year to year. Examining comparable June 13th records from prior years provides limited predictive value given natural climate variability, but the 30-year average for mid-June maxima hovers around 27–28°C. Extreme heat events above 32°C are uncommon in early June but have occurred during anomalous warm spells driven by Pacific high-pressure systems.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly their spring outlooks issued in April and May 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift temperature probabilities materially. Additionally, any significant volcanic activity or solar variability affecting Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the months preceding June would warrant reassessment. The market's current zero-probability pricing suggests minimal trading activity; meaningful liquidity may only emerge as the settlement date approaches and forecasts become more concrete.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.