Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, indicating traders have assigned negligible probability to any specific temperature range materialising on that date—a reflection of the extreme uncertainty inherent in pricing weather events nearly two years in advance. The contract settles against a single, verifiable data point: the peak temperature reading captured across all hours on that specific day.

June temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 23°C and 28°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 30°C during early heat waves. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market has not yet crystallised around any particular outcome, which is typical for weather contracts with extended settlement windows. Comparable June conditions from recent years show variability: 2023 saw Seoul reach 29.5°C in mid-June, whilst 2022 peaked at 27.2°C. This historical spread indicates meaningful uncertainty that should anchor any trading thesis.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding June 2026, particularly any signals regarding early monsoon activity or heat dome formation. El Niño and La Niña cycles influence East Asian summer temperatures significantly; current NOAA projections for 2026 conditions remain the primary catalyst for probability shifts. As the settlement date approaches, daily forecast models will sharpen considerably, but current pricing reflects the genuine difficulty of pinpointing temperature ranges across a 24-month horizon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.