Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 10 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure date of 12:00 UTC on that day—a timing constraint that eliminates meaningful price discovery for an event still eighteen months away. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are effectively pricing the probability that the highest daily temperature will fall within specific Celsius ranges, with USDC collateral backing each outcome.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable variability. Between 2010 and 2023, 10 June highs ranged from 22°C to 30°C, with an average near 26°C. The 2020 and 2022 observations reached 29°C and 28°C respectively, whilst cooler years like 2017 recorded only 22°C. This spread reflects Seoul's transition into early summer, where monsoon patterns and upper-level atmospheric circulation significantly influence daily maxima. The 0% pricing suggests the market has not yet populated liquidity across outcome bands, a common state for weather markets far from settlement.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in May, which provide guidance on whether June 2026 will trend warmer or cooler than the thirty-year normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift probabilities materially. The settlement mechanism's strict 12:00 UTC cutoff means only temperatures recorded before midday Korean time count, potentially excluding afternoon peaks—a detail that could compress the range of realistic outcomes compared to full-day observations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.