Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract for Seoul’s highest temperature on 5 July 2026 currently trades at 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, meaning the market believes the temperature will not fall into the specified range. On Polymarket, this USDC-denominated position on the Polygon network uses conditional tokens to lock in the 0% price, reflecting a consensus that the day’s peak will exceed the threshold in question.

Historically, Seoul in July sees average daytime highs between 25°C and 30°C, with occasional spikes nudging 30°C or higher, and humidity often raising the “feels like” temperature significantly. Incheon International Airport, the designated resolution station, typically records similar highs, though coastal influence may slightly moderate extremes. Given that 30°C is a common upper bound and the market’s 0% stance implies the threshold is well below this, the probability aligns with decades of climatic data showing July as one of South Korea’s hottest months, with average highs around 28–31°C.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and any sudden monsoon-related shifts, as July falls within the monsoon season and rain showers can temporarily suppress peak temperatures. Recent guidance from AccuWeather notes daily highs in Seoul for July 2026 ranging from 81°F to 94°F (27°C–34°C), suggesting the threshold in the contract is likely set below 27°C. With no major heatwave announcements yet and precipitation probability at 20% for the coming hours, the 0% price appears robust unless an unexpected cool spell materialises before the 12:00 UTC settlement window.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.