Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine the outcome of a live Polymarket contract priced in USDC on the Polygon network. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are confident the peak temperature will fall outside the specified range. This conditional token setup allows users to bet directly on the weather event, with settlement occurring once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum for the station.

Historically, mid-July in Paris sees average highs of 26°C, with daily peaks ranging from 20°C to 43°C in extreme cases [1]. The current 0% pricing aligns with the typical thermal profile for this date, where temperatures rarely breach the upper thresholds required for a YES resolution. Past heatwaves in 2019 and 2022 pushed Paris to 42–43°C, but such events remain statistical outliers rather than norms, framing the low probability as a rational market assessment rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from Météo-France and Wunderground updates as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, wind patterns, or regional heat advection could alter the day’s peak temperature, though no major weather announcements have been issued recently. The dependency on a single data source—Wunderground’s Paris-Le Bourget record—means traders must watch for discrepancies between forecast models and the final reported figure, as even a 1°C variance could swing the outcome.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.