Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges, with traders currently pricing the market at 100% YES across all outcomes combined. This reflects the certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded that day—the market's true function is to identify which bracket contains that reading. The settlement hinges on historical data from Weather Underground's LaGuardia station records, where the highest daily temperature is logged in Fahrenheit.

New York's June temperatures typically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, though the city regularly experiences outliers. Historical precedent shows that on 12 June specifically, temperatures have ranged from the low 70s to the mid-80s across recent decades. The 2023 and 2024 June records for the city peaked in the upper 80s during heat waves, whilst cooler Junes have seen highs stall in the mid-70s. These historical bands provide the framework for understanding where traders should expect the 2026 reading to land, given no unusual atmospheric setup is forecast months in advance.

The primary variable traders should monitor is the Atlantic weather pattern developing in late May and early June 2026. High-pressure systems tracking northeastward typically drive warmer readings, whilst low-pressure troughs or tropical moisture can suppress temperatures. National Weather Service forecasts released in early June will offer the first concrete directional signal. Additionally, any significant heat dome or cold front positioned over the Northeast in the days preceding 12 June could shift the outcome materially, making real-time meteorological updates the key catalyst for position adjustments closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.