Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City will record its highest temperature for the day, a figure that will determine the outcome of a Polymarket contract priced today at 0% for any temperature below 98°F. The market currently assigns a 41% probability to the 98–99°F range and 39% to 96–97°F, reflecting real-time trading activity on the Polygon network using USDC and conditional tokens. This pricing suggests traders are betting on extreme heat, despite the abstract notion that July 4 is typically hot but not record-breaking.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: LaGuardia recorded its warmest midnight temperature ever at 94°F earlier this week, a milestone that underscores how heat can persist and intensify through the holiday period[3][4]. In 2023, the airport hit 104°F on 4 July, breaking the old record of 101°F and proving that July 4 can deliver record-breaking highs[7]. The 2026 AccuWeather forecast for Laguardia shows daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F, indicating the potential for sustained high temperatures[5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for LaGuardia, which already show readings of 91°F at 12:55 pm today[2]. Key catalysts include official announcements from Fox Weather regarding heat advisories and any shifts in the regional weather pattern that could push temperatures beyond 98°F[3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 4 July 2026, and the resolution source is Wunderground’s highest temperature for all times on that day at LaGuardia[1]. No moralising is needed; the facts are clear, and the on-chain mechanics will resolve the outcome automatically.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.