Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. On Polymarket today, the contract for the 0% YES outcome (implying the temperature will fall below a specific threshold) is priced at 0.00, reflecting near-total market certainty that the heat will exceed that range. This pricing sits on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where conditional tokens allow traders to hedge exposure to the specific temperature bracket without taking directional risk on the broader weather.

Historical data frames this certainty: LaGuardia’s average July high ranges from 81°F to 99°F, with the all-time record of 107°F set on 3 July 1966 [1][4]. Even the 2021 record high of 100°F on 1 July suggests that temperatures below 80°F are exceptionally rare for this date [3]. The current 0% probability aligns with these patterns, as July 1 in New York consistently delivers highs well above 80°F, making lower thresholds statistically implausible.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological briefings for LaGuardia, which issue red heat warnings when extremes approach record levels [3][8]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate potential highs up to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated temperatures [1]. Any sudden shifts in the NWS KOKX briefing or updates from Weather Underground could signal deviations, though the current trajectory points firmly toward high heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.