US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning no live value to a signed, qualifying US-Iran nuclear instrument by 31 August 2026. On Polymarket’s setup, traders are not betting on vague diplomatic progress: the conditional token only resolves YES if the written instrument is mutually signed or formally adopted under the market’s rules, with settlement in USDC on Polygon.

The pricing reflects how often preliminary diplomacy in this file has stopped short of a final document. In February and late June, reporting described “progress”, “roadmaps” and draft language, but also repeated that details were unresolved and that no final agreement had been reached.[3][4][6][11] The June framework matters because it narrowed the path to a 60-day negotiation window, yet Reuters said the memorandum was not finalised and still needed approval, while later coverage made clear the parties were still talking through nuclear access and sanctions terms.[8][12] That history supports a market view that headlines can move fast without producing the specific written instrument this market requires.

For traders, the main catalysts are formal announcements from Washington and Tehran, mediator readouts, and any scheduled technical round that could turn a roadmap into signed text. Reuters reported that the deal was close enough on 12 June for signing to be possible “in the coming days”, but the same reporting also noted no final decision on location or approval.[8] Since the market deadline is fixed at 31 August, watch for whether the 60-day extension is formally invoked, whether inspectors’ access and sanctions relief are codified, and whether both sides publish identical language rather than parallel statements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.