Highest temperature in Milan on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Milan’s Malpensa International Airport on 15 July 2026 will determine this market’s outcome, with the settlement source drawn from Wunderground’s daily history for that station. Today, Polymarket prices the “YES” contract at 100%, implying the crowd believes the event will resolve within a specific, pre-defined range that is effectively certain under current conditions.

Historically, mid-July in Milan sees typical highs near 29°C, though early-month peaks can reach 31–33°C, with 33°C appearing in 33% of current conditional token allocations as the next most likely single outcome after the 50% probability assigned to “32°C or below”[1][2]. The 100% YES price suggests the market expects the temperature to fall within a narrow band that aligns with recent forecast models indicating 33°C for the upcoming days, slightly above the historical average of 31.6°C at the start of July[3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live daily updates for the Malpensa station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, ensuring the USDC payout on Polygon executes via conditional tokens once the official temperature is logged. No external announcements or schedules will alter the resolution, as the market depends solely on the recorded temperature from the specified weather station, with the gear icon on Wunderground used to confirm Celsius readings before final settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.