Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned reflects the market's pricing mechanics on Polygon: traders are not allocating capital to any single temperature band, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about the specific outcome or confidence that the event will resolve outside current expectations. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with the final temperature locked in at 12:00 UTC on the day itself.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18–24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The City Airport station, located in the Isle of Dogs, typically records slightly warmer readings than central London due to its position near the Thames and lower urban density. Since 2000, June highs exceeding 28°C have occurred roughly once every five years, whilst temperatures below 15°C remain rare but possible during unsettled Atlantic systems. The current flat probability distribution suggests traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing conditional tokens to specific ranges.

The Met Office's seasonal outlook, updated quarterly, will influence trader positioning as June approaches. North Atlantic Oscillation patterns and sea-surface temperatures in spring 2026 will signal whether the month favours high-pressure systems typical of warm June weather or cooler, wetter conditions. Any significant heatwave warnings issued in early June would likely trigger sharp repricing across the temperature bands, as traders adjust for real-time meteorological developments rather than climatological averages.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.