Highest temperature in London on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature brackets, reflecting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity in the contract's conditional token pairs on Polygon. USDC holders can enter positions across the full range of outcomes, though the absence of meaningful crowd pricing suggests this market may be newly listed or experiencing low trading volume.

London's June temperatures typically cluster between 18–24°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The city's warmest June day on record was 32.0°C in 1976, though such extremes remain statistically rare. Recent decades show that mid-June highs exceed 25°C roughly once every three years, providing a baseline for assessing which temperature brackets carry genuine probability weight versus tail-risk pricing.

Weather forecasting accuracy for a specific date fourteen months ahead remains severely limited; seasonal outlooks from the Met Office will become more informative from March 2026 onwards. Traders should monitor spring 2026 climate patterns and any emerging signals of an unusually warm early summer, though traditional weather prediction models gain reliable skill only within 10–14 days of the target date. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, allowing final adjustments as actual conditions emerge.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.