Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius, and Polymarket traders are currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability—a technical artefact of how conditional tokens settle on Polygon when no volume has accumulated. The market will resolve to whichever temperature bracket contains the official "Absolute Daily Max" reading from the Observatory's Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place. USDC collateral underpins the outcome tokens, with settlement contingent on the Observatory publishing finalised data after the settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's June weather patterns show consistent heat with substantial year-to-year variation. Historical Observatory records indicate June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 34°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed higher. The 2015 heatwave saw June temperatures exceed 35°C on multiple days, whilst cooler Junes have settled around 28–30°C. El Niño and La Niña cycles influence regional temperature patterns six to twelve months in advance, making seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies relevant reference points for traders constructing probability distributions around the specific date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during May and early June, as storm systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The China Meteorological Administration's monthly forecasts, typically released in the preceding month, offer additional guidance on regional pressure patterns. Polymarket's conditional token mechanics mean the market will remain illiquid until traders begin pricing specific ranges; early volume often clusters around historically modal outcomes before dispersing across tail scenarios.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.