Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, measured to one decimal place. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% on Polygon, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement state awaiting historical data publication. Traders holding conditional tokens here face a binary outcome: the Observatory publishes a figure and resolves the contract to the appropriate range, or the market remains unresolved pending official data release from the Hong Kong Observatory's Daily Extract archive.

Hong Kong's June temperatures historically cluster between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-summer heat waves. The Observatory's 30-year climate normals show a mean daily maximum of 30.7°C for mid-June, though individual years vary considerably. The 0% probability across all bands suggests the market may be newly created or awaiting initial liquidity; comparable weather markets on Polymarket typically show distributed probabilities reflecting seasonal norms and recent meteorological patterns once trading commences.

The settlement hinges entirely on Hong Kong Observatory data publication, which typically occurs within days of the observation date. No external catalysts—forecasts, alerts, or announcements—will alter the underlying temperature; the only variable is when official records become available for resolution. Traders should verify the Observatory's publication schedule and confirm that USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once the Daily Extract confirms the absolute daily maximum for 13 June 2026.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.