Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure at 12:00 UTC that same day—a timing constraint that makes real-time data availability the binding factor rather than meteorological uncertainty. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon will await the Observatory's publication of the "Absolute Daily Max" figure to one decimal place before resolution can occur.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 29°C and 33°C during this period. The Observatory's 30-year normals show 10 June averaging around 31°C, though individual years vary considerably. The 0% probability reflects the practical difficulty of trading an event whose outcome data won't be finalised until after the settlement window closes, rather than any expectation of anomalous temperatures. Traders cannot settle positions until the Observatory publishes its daily extract—a lag that historically occurs within days of the observation date.

The key catalyst remains the Observatory's data publication schedule. The Hong Kong Observatory typically releases daily climate summaries within 3–5 business days of observation, though this varies seasonally. Traders should monitor the Observatory's climate data portal directly; no advance forecasts or announcements will resolve this contract. The conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions remain locked until official data appears, making this a pure settlement-timing play rather than a weather prediction opportunity.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.