Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas on 28 June 2026 will see its peak heat measured in degrees Fahrenheit at the Dallas Love Field Station, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the “YES” outcome for the implied temperature band. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the zero probability reflects the crowd’s belief that the day’s high will fall outside the specific range offered. The on-chain mechanics mean traders are betting on data published by Wunderground, not on abstract weather forecasts, and the settlement window closes at noon local time on 28 June 2026.

Historical patterns frame this near-zero probability sharply: June 2026 in Love Field has already seen highs between 96° and 100°F, with 97°F recorded on 2 June as the year’s peak so far [3][9]. Just days earlier, a similar market for 14 June resolved at 84–85°F, well below the current month’s trend [1], while the 27 June market priced 96–97°F at 60% confidence, suggesting the crowd expects sustained heat [2]. The 25 June reading of 83°F was an anomaly below the 94.2°F average, indicating volatility but not a break from the seasonal high [4].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service timeseries for KDAL, which updates every few minutes and will confirm the day’s peak before Wunderground publishes the final value [6]. No official heat announcements are scheduled, but the dependency is purely on the resolution source’s data point for 28 June, which must be published before the market can resolve. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather confirm the daily high range remains 96°–100°F for June 2026, reinforcing that the 0% price likely misprices the true risk if the band excludes this range [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.