Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 16 June 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% on Polymarket, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or extreme confidence in a particular outcome band that hasn't yet attracted counterparty interest. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can deploy conditional tokens across the available temperature brackets, though the absence of meaningful probability distribution indicates this contract may be awaiting initial price discovery.

June temperatures in Beijing historically cluster between 25–32°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The past decade shows mid-June averages around 28–30°C, though 2020 and 2022 recorded highs exceeding 34°C during early summer heat events. The current 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market has not yet calibrated to seasonal norms or may be experiencing a data feed issue rather than reflecting genuine trader conviction about extreme outcomes.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, typically issued five to ten days before the settlement date. El Niño or La Niña patterns influence North China Plain temperatures; the current neutral phase offers no strong directional bias. Urban heat island effects around Beijing's airport—situated in a developed zone—tend to elevate recorded temperatures 1–2°C above surrounding rural areas. Real-time atmospheric pressure systems and Mongolian cold fronts moving southward in mid-June represent the primary catalysts that could drive temperatures toward either extreme of the historical range.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.