Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has seen sustained disruption to shipping traffic since late 2023. The market asks whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average by IMF Portwatch—will recover to 60 or above by end of May 2026. Polymarket currently prices YES at 1%, implying traders assess normalisation as exceptionally unlikely within the settlement window. The contract settles on USDC via Polygon conditional tokens, with resolution triggered immediately upon IMF Portwatch publishing any qualifying 7-day average, rather than waiting for the May deadline.

Historical precedent suggests the threshold of 60 daily transits represents genuine normalcy rather than recovery. Pre-disruption baselines typically ranged between 55 and 65 daily calls; the metric collapsed to the low-to-mid 30s following Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent military responses. Previous regional escalations—the 2019 tanker incidents, the 2022 Ukraine-related commodity shocks—saw recovery timescales measured in months rather than weeks, though those disruptions lacked the sustained military dimension present here.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from the International Maritime Organization regarding corridor safety assessments, alongside any ceasefire negotiations in Yemen or shifts in US military posture in the region. Recent reporting from Lloyd's List and Splash247 indicates shipping lines remain reluctant to commit vessels to the route despite some operational resumption. The seasonal pattern of Gulf shipping—typically heavier in winter months—means May represents a structurally weaker period for transit volumes regardless of security conditions, creating additional headwind for the YES case.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.