Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket's conditional token pair on Polygon currently prices Walton's advancement at 34 cents on the dollar, implying a 34% win probability against Medvedev in their Roland Garros first-round encounter scheduled for 24 May 2026. The market reflects a substantial underdog position for Walton, with USDC settlement contingent on match completion by 31 May—a seven-day buffer that accounts for potential rain delays common at the clay-court Grand Slam.

Medvedev's ranking and recent form provide the primary context for reading this probability. The Russian has consistently ranked in the top five since 2019 and reached the Australian Open final in January 2026, though clay remains his weakest surface relative to hard courts. Walton, an ATP journeyman, has never advanced beyond a Grand Slam second round and currently sits outside the top 100. Historical matchups between players of this calibre disparity—where the higher-ranked player faces a qualifier or low-ranked opponent—typically settle near 20–30% for the underdog, suggesting the market has priced Walton slightly above baseline expectation.

Traders should monitor Roland Garros draw confirmation and any late withdrawals that might alter seeding or scheduling. Weather forecasts for late May in Paris carry weight given the settlement clause's sensitivity to delays beyond seven days. Medvedev's fitness status matters; any injury reports in the fortnight before the tournament could shift conditional token valuations. The match's exact court assignment and time slot, once confirmed, may also influence liquidity and pricing on Polygon as European trading hours approach.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.