Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kyrian Jacquet and Toby Samuel are scheduled to meet at the Ilkley grass-court tournament on 8 June 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices Jacquet's advancement at zero, reflecting either extreme confidence in Samuel or minimal trading activity on this particular match. The settlement window closes 15 June, allowing a week's buffer for rescheduling before the market resolves to 50-50 if no winner emerges.

Jacquet, a French player, and Samuel, a British competitor, represent the kind of lower-ranked matchup that typically draws modest liquidity on conditional token platforms. Historical precedent suggests that grass-court tournaments at this tier experience fixture changes and weather delays with regularity; the 2024 Ilkley event saw several matches rescheduled across the week. A zero probability on Jacquet reflects either Samuel's superior recent form or simply that no meaningful USDC has flowed into the YES side on Polygon yet. Early-round matches at satellite events often trade thinly until draw confirmation and player availability are confirmed closer to the event date.

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger or ITF circuit announcements regarding final draw confirmation, expected in late May. Grass-court conditions at Ilkley can shift rapidly; rain forecasts for early June will influence both match scheduling and player preparation patterns. Any withdrawal or late substitution would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, making draw stability the primary catalyst. Recent form data from qualifying rounds and warm-up tournaments in May will provide the clearest signal of relative strength between the two players.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.