Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passing through its 21-nautical-mile width annually. Polymarket currently prices the probability of a specific country's warship transit through the strait by end-June 2026 at 5% YES, implying traders assess the event as unlikely within the settlement window. The contract hinges on confirmed passage of military vessels—destroyers, frigates, corvettes, or support craft—rather than commercial shipping, with resolution requiring either official government acknowledgement or broad credible reporting consensus.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits through Hormuz occur with regularity, though concentrated among established naval powers. The United States Navy maintains a persistent presence with regular carrier strike group rotations; European navies including the Royal Navy and French Marine Nationale have conducted freedom-of-navigation operations; and regional powers including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE operate coastal and offshore patrol vessels. The 5% probability reflects either a narrow interpretation of which country qualifies under the market's terms, or trader scepticism that any single nation's transit will be sufficiently documented and reported during the eighteen-month window.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, scheduled carrier deployments, and any escalation in regional tensions that might trigger European naval responses. Recent tensions between Iran and Gulf states, alongside ongoing Houthi activity in the Red Sea, create conditions favouring increased naval activity. Official naval schedules, maritime incident reports from the International Maritime Organization, and statements from regional governments will serve as primary settlement indicators.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.