UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Polymarket prices Melissa Mullins at **1¢** and Bia Mesquita at **84¢** on the related UFC Fight Night contract, so the market is treating a Mullins win as a very low-probability outcome. The trade settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not who looks likelier in theory, but how the official UFC result will map into the binary contract at settlement.

That pricing is consistent with the wider pre-fight market picture, which has Mesquita as a strong favourite. A preview published on fight day listed Mesquita around **-600** and Mullins around **+450**, while event listings placed the bout on the prelims at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi in the women’s bantamweight division.[1][3][4] In practical terms, the current 0% YES view leaves almost no room for a surprise result, injury-driven change, or an administrative outcome that would push the market into its **50-50** fallback.

For traders, the key catalysts are simple: official UFC bout status, whether the fight stays on the scheduled prelim card, and the final result as announced by the UFC. Robinhood’s matching event page shows the market remains open if a bout is postponed or delayed and resolves to **50/50** for a tie or no contest, which is the main non-decision risk to watch alongside any last-minute cancellation or rescheduling.[2] If the fight proceeds normally, the only decisive input is the UFC’s official winner declaration.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.