Tunisia vs. Japan - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia and Japan meet in the FIFA World Cup group stage in Monterrey, and Polymarket is pricing **More Markets** at **4% YES** on USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, which is a very low expectation for any extra listed market to be added before the settlement window closes.[3][4] In practical terms, that price suggests traders think the chance of a fresh market launch tied to this fixture is remote unless there is a visible catalyst from the event itself or from the platform’s own market-creation activity.

For framing, low single-digit pricing is typical when the trigger depends on discretionary listing rather than a match outcome. Comparable World Cup match-specific markets on prediction venues usually move only when there is a concrete schedule change, a major pre-match news event, or clear demand from the trading crowd; absent that, the implied probability tends to sit near the floor and drift little. ESPN’s live odds page shows Japan as the stronger side in the underlying game, but that is separate from the “more markets” contract and mainly matters insofar as a close, high-interest match can encourage additional trading interest.[4]

Traders watching this contract should focus on whether Polymarket adds any new linked markets as kickoff approaches, plus any late FIFA or broadcaster updates that alter timing, coverage, or status of the fixture. FIFA lists kick-off for 21 June at 04:00 UTC in Monterrey, while FOX’s scheduling page pegs the same game for 5:00 p.m. ET on 20 June, so any disruption to the broadcast or match schedule would be the clearest catalyst for a repricing.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Japan - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.