Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phillies travel to Milwaukee on 13 June for an evening fixture against the Brewers, with Polymarket currently pricing a Philadelphia victory at 40% (implying 60% for Milwaukee). This represents a modest favourite position for the home side, reflecting both recent form and roster composition heading into mid-June. The settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for postponements or rescheduling should weather or other factors intervene.

Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance across recent seasons, though Milwaukee has held marginal advantages in head-to-head records during certain stretches. The Brewers' home-field edge at American Family Field typically accounts for 2–3 percentage points in win probability models, a factor already embedded in the current market pricing. Phillies teams with strong offensive lineups have nonetheless performed well in this venue, suggesting the 40% probability reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than dismissal of Philadelphia's chances.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, as these typically drive significant repricing in baseball markets 24–48 hours before first pitch. Injury reports for key position players—particularly any late-season absences from either roster—could shift the contract substantially. Weather conditions in Milwaukee on game day warrant attention, as June thunderstorms occasionally force postponements in the region. Recent performance streaks, particularly whether either team enters the fixture on a winning or losing run, often correlate with modest probability shifts in the final trading hours before the game commences.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.