Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi UK Pick polygram.ink |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Kalshi UK.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Winner | 67% Vitality | 33% MOUZ |
| Map 2 Winner | 73% Vitality | 27% MOUZ |
| Match Winner | 79% Vitality | 22% MOUZ |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 42% Over | 59% Under |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) | 51% Vitality | 50% MOUZ |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) | 48% Vitality | 53% MOUZ |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 67% probability to counter-strike: vitality vs mouz (bo3) - iem cologne major stage 3. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Vitality and MOUZ in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 13 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?
- Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne… on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on Kalshi UK →