Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros** at about **2% YES** on the Guardians, which implies a near-certain view that Houston will take the game. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through conditional tokens settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, so the contract pays according to the official game result rather than a broader season view. The event is scheduled for **June 20 at 7:15PM ET** in Houston, and the market remains live if the game is delayed or suspended until it is officially completed.

That 2% is far below the wider betting market read. Recent pre-game listings showed the Astros as favourites ranging from roughly **-120 to -156**, while Cleveland sat around **+120 to +128**, with projected totals near **8 to 8.5 runs**.[1][2][4][5] ESPN’s game listing also had Houston ahead on the odds board and placed the Guardians at **40-36** against the Astros at **36-41** before first pitch.[6] In practical terms, the Polymarket price is not just saying Houston is favoured; it is saying a Guardians win is treated as an extreme outlier relative to the base case.

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual late-breaking baseball variables: confirmed line-ups, any change to the probable pitching matchup, and weather or schedule disruption that could push the game into a later completion window. SportsGrid listed **Joey Cantillo vs. Spencer Arrighetti** as the probable starters, while the FOX Sports game page and other previews show the market is centred on a standard nine-inning decision unless postponement or cancellation forces the 50-50 rule.[2][3] Because the settlement window runs out to **2026-06-27T23:15:00Z**, a make-up date still matters if the original game is delayed, while a tie or no-reschedule cancellation would split the contract 50-50 under the market rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.