UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo flyweight prelim at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively assigning no value to an Allan Nascimento win and all of the probability mass to the other outcomes or a late settlement state. On Polymarket, buyers are holding USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price reflects the market’s view of the UFC result rather than a sportsbook-style line.

That near-zero price makes sense in context because the matchup has already been signposted by UFC media as a June 20, 2026 prelim on *UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi*, and the bout page has both fighters listed with Raposo at 10-3 and Nascimento at 22-6, suggesting a live fight with clear record contrast rather than an open-ended scheduling question.[6][7][9] Comparable UFC fight markets often move sharply once the bout is officially on the card and still active at weigh-ins, while cancelled, postponed or no-contest outcomes can pull contracts towards the market’s fallback settlement if the official UFC result never lands.

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: the UFC’s final bout sheet, any late medical or weight-related withdrawals, and the official result immediately after the prelim. UFC’s own update says Raposo’s flyweight bout with Nascimento was moved onto the June 20 card after illness issues in Winnipeg, which shows the fixture has already had at least one scheduling dependency.[8] Because the market settles from official UFC information and closes at the end of the listed settlement window, any scratch, postponement beyond the deadline, or technical result would matter more here than pre-fight media noise.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.