Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

The United States men’s national team, already crowned Group D winners, faces Türkiye in their final group-stage match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on 25 June 2026. Türkiye, winless so far, needs a victory to secure their first group-stage win in this World Cup. The prediction market for the halftime result—home, draw, or away—currently prices a US home win at 0% confidence, implying the market expects either a draw or a Turkish lead by the 45-minute mark.

Historically, Türkiye has struggled in World Cup group stages, having not returned to the tournament for 24 years until this year, and recently lost 2–0 to Australia in a match that spoiled their comeback [1]. In contrast, the USMNT has won both their group matches, including a 2–0 victory over Australia without star Christian Pulisic, who remains injured [3]. Their last clash with Türkiye, on 7 June 2025, ended in a 2–1 US defeat in Hartford, suggesting Türkiye can compete at this level [4].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups, especially whether Pulisic is ruled out again, and any tactical shifts from either side. The US has already secured top spot in Group D, meaning they may play conservatively, while Türkiye must win to advance [7]. SoFi Stadium doors open at 4:00 PM ET, with kickoff at 7:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET [8]. On-chain, this contract trades on Polymarket using USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling automatically at the 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.