Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET, with this market settling on the halftime scoreline. Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome—a Haiti victory at the break—at 0%, reflecting the substantial quality gap between the two sides. On-chain liquidity sits thin, typical for niche halftime markets where conditional token mechanics on Polygon require traders to hold USDC reserves and manage position sizing across multiple outcome branches.

Historical precedent suggests halftime upsets in World Cup football remain statistically rare but not impossible. Scotland's defensive record in qualifying showed vulnerabilities to pressing attacks, whilst Haiti's qualification path demonstrated occasional capacity to trouble organised defences through set-piece aggression. However, Scotland's recent form and squad depth—featuring players from top European leagues—creates a structural asymmetry that the 0% probability partially reflects. Comparable halftime markets during Euro 2024 showed that underdogs rarely achieved leads by the interval unless facing significant tactical disarray or injury disruptions.

The settlement window closes 14 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly 12 hours post-match for official confirmation. Traders should monitor team news through to kickoff, particularly Scotland's defensive availability and Haiti's attacking personnel fitness. FIFA's official match documentation and broadcaster feeds will determine the exact halftime scoreline; any VAR reviews completed before the 45-minute mark do not alter the halftime result itself. Early-window trades will face illiquidity on Polygon, whilst late-window positions risk settlement delays if match records require clarification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.