England vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on Wednesday, 10 June 2026. Polymarket currently prices an England victory at 12% YES, implying roughly 88% probability assigned to either a Costa Rican win or a draw. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES tokens receive full USDC payout only if England wins outright; any other result settles at zero, making this a binary bet rather than a three-way market.

Historical matchups between the nations provide limited precedent. England and Costa Rica last met in 2014, a 3–1 England victory in a friendly. Costa Rica's 2022 World Cup campaign saw them eliminated in the group stage despite reaching the quarter-finals in 2014, suggesting a relative decline in competitive standing. Yet friendly matches carry inherent unpredictability; England's recent record in non-competitive fixtures shows inconsistent performance, particularly when squad rotation occurs. The 12% probability reflects market scepticism about England's ability to secure a clean win rather than confidence in Costa Rican strength.

Squad announcements and injury updates between now and the match represent the primary catalyst for repricing. England's Euro 2024 campaign concludes in July 2024, meaning the June 2026 friendly sits well into the following cycle, likely featuring experimental selections or players returning from injury. Costa Rica's domestic league schedule and any late withdrawals could shift perceived match quality. Settlement occurs at 20:00 UTC on 10 June, allowing roughly 90 minutes post-match for official confirmation before conditional tokens resolve.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.