Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract near **6% YES**, which is a low-implied probability for a formal Abraham Accords expansion before the 2026 deadline. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling **conditional tokens** on **Polygon** in **USDC**, so the price reflects the crowd’s view of whether a listed country will have a publicly acknowledged normalisation deal with Israel that is clearly tied to the Accords framework by year-end. [2]

That pricing sits against a thin recent track record. The Abraham Accords began with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, but later additions have been sporadic, and official expansion has tended to happen only when a narrow diplomatic window opens. AP reported in 2026 that Kazakhstan was set to join in a symbolic move, showing that entry can still happen, but it also underlines how unusual a new signature is after long periods of inertia. [8][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are formal statements, visit schedules and any public US-mediated push that names a specific country as a candidate. The market’s resolution standard is strict: it needs an official, publicly acknowledged signing under the Abraham Accords or its continuation, not just talk of normalisation or broader contacts with Israel. Recent coverage of the market itself has pointed to Somaliland, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon and others as the field of interest, with odds shifting on headlines rather than on a steady diplomatic trend. [1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.