Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **35% YES**, pricing in a meaningful chance that the next Israeli election produces a different prime ministerial outcome rather than another Netanyahu term. The market settles on the first person **formally sworn in** as prime minister after the next election, using USDC on Polygon with conditional tokens, so traders are really buying the post-election coalition result rather than the vote share alone.

That price sits in a historical pattern where Israeli elections often produce fragmented Knessets and coalition bargaining matters as much as the ballot itself. Reuters reported on 29 July that successive surveys showed Netanyahu “on course to lose the election”, while other recent coverage has framed **Gadi Eisenkot**, **Naftali Bennett** and Netanyahu as the main contenders for the premiership race[16][1][2]. In practical terms, a mid-30s probability implies the market sees a genuine transition risk, but not a clean opposition handover, because the eventual swearing-in depends on coalition arithmetic after the 120-seat Knesset is formed.

The main catalysts are the election date, the shape of alliance-building, and whether any early vote or coalition break changes the candidate field. Parliament has said the election will be held on **27 October 2026**, the latest date allowed, and Reuters noted in May that an earlier poll remained possible if lawmakers agreed on a new timetable[3][5][12]. Traders should watch formal party lists, merger announcements, post-election bloc negotiations, and any sign that the president’s mandate-giving process will favour one leader over another, because the market only resolves when the new prime minister is actually sworn in, not when exit polls or seat projections move first.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.