Colombia Presidential Election

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold a presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a constitutionally mandated second round on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first ballot. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 0% for the listed candidate, reflecting either that the specific option has been eliminated from contention or that traders assess negligible probability of that outcome relative to alternatives trading on the same underlying event. Settlement depends on official results confirmed by Colombia's National Electoral Council and reported by credible news sources by the end of 2026.

Colombia's electoral history shows competitive, multi-candidate races where second rounds have been decisive. In 2022, Gustavo Petro won the runoff with 50.4% against Rodolfo Hernández after neither secured majority support in the first round. The 2018 election similarly required a second ballot, with Iván Duque prevailing. This pattern suggests the 21 June date will likely determine the outcome unless an unexpected first-round consensus emerges—a scenario traders should treat as low-probability given Colombia's fragmented political landscape and recent polarisation between left and right blocs.

Key catalysts include candidate registration deadlines (typically months before the election), campaign finance disclosures, and polling releases that may shift market prices as the election approaches. Economic conditions—inflation, unemployment, and security concerns—will shape voter sentiment. Any major political developments, legal challenges to candidacies, or shifts in coalition-building between now and May 2026 could alter the competitive dynamics. Traders should monitor Colombian news sources and the electoral council's official calendar for procedural updates that might affect settlement timing or candidate eligibility.

Methodology

We track Colombia Presidential Election on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.