Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Over 30,000 vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually, carrying more than 20 million barrels of oil each day, yet traffic has collapsed by over 95% since the Iran war began, with daily crossings now averaging between 75 and 125 ships before the conflict[5][7]. Recent IMF PortWatch data from March 2026 recorded 41 transit calls in a single week, yielding a 7-day moving average of 5.857, which aligns with the current subdued baseline[1]. This historical volatility frames the 46% crowd-implied probability: the market hinges on whether a temporary surge or security incident can push daily arrivals above the listed threshold before July 2026.

Traders must monitor announcements regarding Red Sea disruptions, as attacks on commercial ships have already reduced Strait traffic since late February 2026, and any escalation could further suppress volumes[3][10]. Key catalysts include scheduled naval patrols, diplomatic talks on shipping safety, and weekly IMF PortWatch revisions, which update monthly satellite data and may reveal sudden shifts in transit patterns[2][6]. A recent Reddit discussion highlights that daily crossings have collapsed dramatically, suggesting that only a significant geopolitical shift or data anomaly could trigger a "Yes" outcome, making real-time on-chain monitoring of conditional tokens on Polygon (settled in USDC) essential for tracking sentiment[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.