Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at 1% YES, implying traders assess the probability of the specified player being traded before the July 2026 deadline as exceptionally low. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon reflect minimal expectation of movement, with YES tokens trading at roughly 0.01 per contract unit against the 0.99 NO baseline.

NFL trades involving established roster players remain statistically uncommon outside designated windows. Since 2020, roughly 15–20 notable mid-season or off-season trades have occurred annually across the league's 32 franchises, but most involve backup-tier or expiring-contract players rather than core contributors. The 1% pricing aligns with historical precedent: players with significant guaranteed money, established roles, or recent contract extensions rarely move unless facing exceptional circumstances such as locker-room dysfunction, salary-cap crisis, or unexpected performance collapse. Comparable markets on individual player trades typically settle NO, with YES outcomes clustering around players entering final contract years or those publicly linked to trade speculation by credible beat reporters.

Traders monitoring this contract should track off-season roster announcements, injury reports, and coaching changes through to the July deadline. The NFL's trade deadline sits in early November, but off-season acquisitions and pre-draft activity between March and May represent the primary windows for movement. Recent reporting from ESPN and The Athletic regarding contract restructures, cap flexibility, and front-office commentary on specific players will signal shifting probabilities. Franchise coaching transitions, particularly if new regimes favour different personnel profiles, could elevate YES odds substantially, though such developments remain speculative at present.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.