"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington is set to open domestically this Fourth of July weekend, with early tracking projecting a gross between $23 million and $35 million for its three-day run, potentially outperforming major summer tentpoles like Supergirl and Spielberg’s Disclosure Day[1][4]. The film, a PG-13 historical epic timed to the 250th anniversary of the U.S. founding, stars William Franklyn-Miller as the young George Washington and features a star-studded cast including Andy Serkis and Sir Ben Kingsley[1][3]. Despite its strong Popcornmeter score and limited indie competition on the weekend, the market currently prices the contract at 0% YES, suggesting traders doubt it will meet the implied threshold for settlement.

Historically, historical war epics with modest budgets and PG-13 ratings have opened in the $20 million to $30 million range, often followed by sharp second-week declines if audience retention is weak[8]. Supergirl’s recent 76% collapse in its second weekend illustrates how quickly summer box office fortunes can reverse when a film fails to sustain momentum[2]. Young Washington’s projected $18 million opening (per some analysts) sits near the lower end of these comparable cases, making the 0% probability a plausible reflection of market caution rather than an outlier[1].

Traders should monitor Friday’s official box office estimates from Deadline and the finalised 3-day gross reported on The Numbers once studio estimates are replaced with actuals[1][3]. Key catalysts include the film’s Popcornmeter retention rate, social media buzz around its historical authenticity, and whether it outperforms Supergirl in the second weekend—a scenario already hinted at in early tracking[2]. The settlement window closes on 6 July 2026, with USDC payouts on Polygon conditional tokens resolving once the final domestic gross is confirmed[1][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.