Iran closes its airspace?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices a broad, government-initiated closure of Iranian airspace—affecting commercial transit, arrivals, and departures across the country or a major region—at zero probability through the resolution date. This reflects trader assessment that such a closure remains an extreme tail event, despite Iran's history of airspace restrictions tied to military operations and geopolitical tensions. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon currently assign negligible value to YES positions, meaning traders expect normal aviation operations to persist.

Iran has closed or severely restricted airspace during acute crises: most notably in January 2020 following the ballistic missile strike on US bases in Iraq, when Tehran suspended flights for roughly 24 hours before resuming operations. The 2019 downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, which killed 176 passengers, occurred during a period of heightened military alert but did not trigger a formal airspace closure beforehand. These precedents suggest closures correlate with direct military escalation or immediate aftermath rather than routine tensions. The current zero probability reflects trader confidence that no such trigger will materialise between June 2026 and the contract expiry.

Catalysts traders monitor include Israeli or US military action against Iranian targets, Iranian ballistic or drone strikes on regional adversaries, and official announcements from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation. Announcements of military exercises, particularly those involving air defence systems, have occasionally prompted temporary flight suspensions in specific zones rather than nationwide closures. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional aviation authorities indicates no scheduled major exercises or heightened alert postures as of early 2026, underpinning the market's current pricing.

Methodology

We track Iran closes its airspace? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.